The Houston Texans travel to the Kansas City Chiefs for the divisional round of the AFC playoffs on Sunday (3:05 p.m. ET, CBS).
Matchup rating: 70.2 | Spread: KC -10 (51)
What to watch for: The Chiefs had trouble getting Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson off the field when the Texans were in Kansas City in October. Houston ran 83 plays and scored 31 points. And while the Chiefs have made significant gains defensively since then, they also haven't faced a QB with Watson's skills over the last six games. -- Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Watson and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will combine to gain more than 650 yards in the game. Neither had his best game in the first matchup, but Watson is coming off of a spectacular second half against the Bills, and the Chiefs have had an extra week to rest and prepare. -- Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Watson's 60 completions and 10 touchdown passes on rollouts (designed or scrambled) lead the NFL this season (including the playoffs). But the Chiefs' defense has tightened up there of late. From Weeks 1-10, it allowed 28 completions on rollouts, the third most in the NFL. Since Week 11, they have allowed just nine, the second fewest in the league (Steelers, seven). Kansas City has also allowed the lowest QBR in the NFL against rollouts over its six-game winning streak (5.1).
Key matchup: Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu vs. Watson. Looking back at the Week 6 head-to-head matchup, we should anticipate the Chiefs rolling out a very multiple defensive game plan versus Watson and the Texans. Man and zone coverages, and pressure to heat up the pocket. Look for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to put Mathieu in a position to make splash plays while catering to his rare versatility in the secondary. Read more.
Betting nugget: Watson is 13-4 ATS in his career as an underdog and 10-8 outright as an underdog in his career. This is the second-most points Watson has ever been an underdog by. In 39 career NFL starts, Watson has only lost by double digits three times, including only once as an underdog. Read more.
Officiating nugget: Shawn Hochuli, the son of retired legend Ed Hochuli, scaled back significantly this season from his flag-happy 2018 rookie debut. After his 2018 crew led the NFL with 20.8 flags per game, his 2019 crew brought that average down by 21% (16.3 per game).
Barshop's pick: Chiefs 38, Texans 35
Teicher's pick: Chiefs 30, Texans 23
FPI prediction: KC, 81.5% (by an average of 11.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Natural-born winner: Texans' Deshaun Watson 'thrives on pressure' ... 'It was worth it': How J.J. Watt's early return gave Texans a spark ... How Tyrann Mathieu became the 'glue' of revamped Chiefs defense ... How Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have mastered third-and-long ... Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson? Chiefs got their man in 2017 draft