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Duke stays on the top line -- for now

Because of all its injuries, Duke's status as a No. 1 seed could be volatile for a while. Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The peril of early-season bracketing is simple: We really don't have enough data. And three of our preseason No. 1 seeds have already lost.

Just as the Vikings were a Super Bowl team in September and Tuffy Rhodes was the next Mark McGwire on Opening Day 1994, it's completely unhelpful to project an entire college basketball season after six days of play. We have to suspend the "if the season ended today" mantra and apply a healthy dose of common sense to our thinking.