There are two ways to predict games in the NFL. You can look at the top-line overall quality of each team and favor the better team, or you can look more specifically at matchups and discover that one team has certain ways to attack the other team's weaknesses.
In this week's Upset Watch pick, the top-line numbers clearly favor the home team. But there are some underlying reasons to believe the road team can pull off an upset.
Upset Watch: Indianapolis Colts (+3) at Tennessee Titans
Overall, the Titans appear to be a better team than the Colts. The Titans ranked 12th in Football Outsiders' preseason projections and the Colts just 24th. After Tennessee's big win over Cleveland, our DAVE ratings, which incorporate Week 1 results, now rank the Titans eighth and the Colts 23rd. That's a pretty big gap. So why is Tennessee favored in this game by only the usual home-field advantage of three points? And why do I think there's a good chance the Colts will pull out an upset?